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The expanding bureaucracy is increasing to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy.

- Oscar Wilde

Updated: 17:40PST - 20 April 2020

Positives may be low by 30% or more due to test inaccuracies.

“Looking at cremations conducted by area funeral homes, Radio Free Asia estimates the true death toll from the virus to be 46,800 in the city home to the outbreak’s origin. China, however, is reporting the total death rate at 2,500. That’s far less than the 5,000 urns recently sent to one Wuhan funeral home, according to the Chinese news outlet Ciaxin.”
     ⇒ from Estimates Show Wuhan Death Rate Far Higher Than China’s Official Reports - 30 Mar 2020

U.S. Daily Additions

Change from the day before in three critical categories. Accuracy NOT guaranteed. There will be some day to day volatility due to late reporting and corrections. 37 States & Terr report Currently Hospitalized, 22 report ICU, 16 report Ventilator and 32 report Recovered data.
20-Apr-20 - MA reported Identical Data to the previous day.

US Daily
Legend_Mort1wk   Mortality            Legend_Recover   Recovered            Legend_Positive   Positive

U.S. CoViD-19 Weekly Positive to Tested Ratio

U.S. Positives as a Percentage of Tested at weekly intervals. Some areas of the country are skewing the national ratio. It is fairly obvious now that portions of the country most at risk due to high population density and mass transit, NYC, New Jersey, ChiTown, Connecticut, parts of Virginia, etc. are holding the rest of the country hostage. Alaska, Oregon, Hawaii, Montana, North Dakota, West Virginia are all holding at 5% or less.

US Pos 2wk
Legend_PN2wk   2 Weeks            Legend_PN1wk   1 Week         Legend_PNCurrent   Current

U.S. CoViD-19 Daily Positive to Tested Ratio

U.S. Positives as a Percentage of Tested. Until the percentage of positives levels off and starts to decline, we are likely testing more symptomatic than the general population. After 30 days, Positives are leveling at ≈19%. However, testing is still restricted. Until we have repeated testing of the entire population, we really know nothing.

“The University of Oxford's Center for Evidence-Based Medicine warns that "the only current COVID-19 specific data comparing [throat swabs] with [nasal swabs] comes from two low quality, non-peer-reviewed studies and should be viewed with caution." It concludes that "it is not possible to accurately assess sensitivity from the existing data."”
         from ⇒ Can a Negative COVID-19 Test Be Trusted?

US PosTest Ratio
Legend_Positive   Positive %            Legend_Tested   Number Tested        

U.S. CoViD-19 Mortality to Positive Test Ratio

Unfortunately, U.S. CoViD-19 mortality statistics are horribly skewed as anyone dying with a positive CoViD-19 test is counted as succumbing to CoViD-19. Approximately 7,700 die in the U.S. every day from all causes. Until we differentiate excess CoViD-19 mortality from normal, mortality is over blown.

U.S. mortality as Percentage of positives, offset by the period indicated. High initial percentages are due to testing only the symptomatic. WHO estimates peak mortality occurs 14 days after the onset of severe symptoms. US mortality rates will be higher initially due to delayed testing.

After 4 weeks, 1 week mortality total is level at ≈6% of positive totals 10 day is level at ≈10%. The NET mortality over the NET positives 2 weeks prior is ≈11%. Poor reporting consistency undoubtedly contributes to the volatility.

Mortality figures could be considerably lower given that test detection ratio is not 100% accurate. The lack of temporal data for probable infection and becoming symptomatic skew the mortality and recovery ratios.

US Mortality PosTest Ratio
Mortalitity1wk   Mortality 1 wk %          Legend_Mort10da Mortality 10 days %        Legend_Mort2wk Mortality 2 wk %        Legend_Mort2wkNet Mortality 2 wk NET %

U.S. CoViD-19 Mortality & Positives Two Weeks Prior

WHO estimates peak mortality occurs about 14 days after contraction, with an extended range of 1 to 8 weeks. U.S. testing started around the beginning of March 2020, mostly of the already symptomatic.

Until positives flatten, mortality won't for another couple of weeks. If positives continue to climb unabated, mortality may climb faster due to overwhelmed care facilities.

Current U.S. Recovery Rate holding around ≈150% of Mortality as more states report better data. Overall U.S. Recovery climbed to ≈170%.
Global Recovery Rate is ≈379%, but extreme vagaries in reporting methods make the number essentially meaningless.

US Mortality 2wk
Mortality2wk   Mortality            Recovered   Recovered            Legend_Pos2wk   Positives 2 weeks prior

US State Mortality 2wk %

U.S. CoViD-19 Hospitalization, Mortality & Positives Trends

U.S. daily numbers graphed to show trends. Until the numbers flatten out the virus is spreading.
Some states are not reporting current hospitalizations.

US Trends
Legend_Recover   Recovered         Legend_Hosp   Currently Hospitalized          Legend_Mort1wk   Mortality            Legend_Positive   Positives

U.S. CoViD-19 Population Percentages

Percentage of each U.S. state and territory population tested and positive percentage of those tested. Date to charts above.
States with high percentage of Tested Positives likely are not testing any but those with symptoms.
Mortality % is deaths divided by Positives and only for States and Territories with Tested.
ALL is Total U.S. population. Positive, and Mortality are Left Y axis, % of Populations Tested on Right Y axis.

US Pop Tested Click Graph for a larger image
Legend_Positive   Positve %            Legend_Mort1wk   Mortality %           Legend_Tested   Tested %

The Curves

ChinaCurve200403 SKoreaCurve200403 TaiwanCurve200403 USACurve200403
ChinaCurve200411 SKoreaCurve200411 TaiwanCurve200411 USACurve200411
China S Korea Taiwan U.S.
  11-Apr-2020 and 1 week prior infection curves
     from Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource

The CoViD-19 Buzz Phrase assuredly has to be 'Flatten the Curve'. Curves from Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource.

China continues its charade. NO other country on earth has a similar curve, giving rise to a strong belief of ChiCom mendacity.
South Korea's is the next best and it is nowhere near flattened, only flattening. Taiwan's is again flattening: How Taiwan Contained COVID-19: Early Action, Technology & Millions of Face Masks
The US is near vertical and it will be a long haul to flatten it.

CurveOR CurveWA CurveCA CurveNY
       Oregon        Washington        California        New York

Graphs of four states mortality and positive counts. Until the mortality flattens, we have not reached any kind of stasis.
Notice the contrast between New York with mass transit, an epidemic's best friend, and California's private transportation. Of course there are other factors, but commuters coming into NYC, riding the subway and then returning back to the 'burbs everyday surely contributed to the 10x ratio between there and California, 20x based on populations.
While the Positives are increasing, the Curve is not Flattening.

U.S. Response

Climate Change or Corona Virus research?
“Coronaviruses are well known to undergo genetic recombination, which may lead to new genotypes and outbreaks. The presence of a large reservoir of SARS-CoV-like viruses in horseshoe bats, together with the culture of eating exotic mammals in southern China, is a time bomb.”
⇒ from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus as an Agent of Emerging and Reemerging Infection published in 2007

Xi Jinping & ChiCom cronies masked up 10-Feb-2020, a FULL MONTH before WHO declared CoViD-19 pandemic. China imported BILLIONS of pieces of PPE in February.
The true scale of China's medical stockpile is revealed

Global Chart of the Pile of Corpses atop which ChiComs stand.

"We misled you. Wear a mask." is Hoover Institution economist Russell Roberts translation of CDC Director Redfield doublespeak. What's Up With All the Contradictory Advice About COVID-19 and Face Masks? - 01 Apr 2020

Frontline report by a verified ER MD in New Orleans LA: Clinical Pearls Covid 19 for ER practitioners - 25 Mar 2020

WHO and U.S. response was very slow. The CDC forbade testing while it developed its own tests in spite of the success of tests in Germany, Taiwan and Korea. The first cases in the U.S. and S. Korea were detected about the same time. As of March 17, 1 in 4300 in the U.S. had been tested vs. 1 in 43 for S. Korea. March 20, the CDC shut down efforts to rapidly make available at-home testing kits. See Bunglers below.

Unbelievably, the U.S. Surgeon General still advises against wearing masks because it reduces the numbers available for health care workers. Wearing masks reduces expelled pathogens! Wearing a mask reduces transmission as well as contraction. Had everyone masked up, the U.S. would have dramatically reduced CoViD-19. Even the 6 foot [2m] recommendation is flawed as a sneeze can propel pathogens 20 feet [6m].

“Since the CDC provides no scientific evidence for its statement that masks worn by the public "are not effective", here we review the scientific support for protection conferred by surgical masks.”

“The official recommendation by CDC, FDA and others that masks worn by the non-health-care professionals are ineffective is incorrect at three levels: In the logic, in the mechanics of transmission, and in the biology of viral entry”


Millions of tests have been deployed in Asia and Europe while the U.S. bureaucracy dallies. March 25, we received a post card from the CDC advising us what everyone already knows!

Media coverage is appalling covering the range from Apocalypse Now to Pollyanna. A March 23 Issues & Insights editorial reports the CDC symptom onset numbers as good news when those numbers represent only too soon to tell. See The Curves below.

State Health offices have vastly different protocols. They change their positions on what they test and when they report further adding to the chaos. See Bunglers below.

Useful Information

“ The average detection rate is around six percent, making the number of cases that is reported in the news on a daily basis rather meaningless ”
   ⇒ from Official COVID-19 Numbers Represent Just 6% of Total Infections, a New Analysis Suggests
“It shows both the number of deaths each day and the rate of change in that number. Most importantly, it uses smoothed data – a moving average from the day before to the day after each date shown.”
   ⇒ from Three graphs that show a global slowdown in COVID-19 deaths

“It is still too early to draw precise conclusions on the extent to which the spread of the COVID-19 is related to urban population density. But there are important recurring themes. The following observations are made with the caveats that we are largely dealing with data inconsistent across geographies in terms of reporting and testing and preliminary. Rigorous research will have to await final data, which could be months in the future.”

Excellent, but infrequently updated. Graphs are scrollable to see global progression. Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Statistics and Research - Univ of Oxford. Data can be downloaded along with a list of sources.

“The epidemic started in China sometime in November or December. The first confirmed U.S. cases included a person who traveled from Wuhan on Jan. 15, and it is likely that the virus entered before that: Tens of thousands of people traveled from Wuhan to the U.S. in December. Existing evidence suggests that the virus is highly transmissible and that the number of infections doubles roughly every three days. An epidemic seed on Jan. 1 implies that by March 9 about six million people in the U.S. would have been infected. As of March 23, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there were 499 Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. If our surmise of six million cases is accurate, that’s a mortality rate of 0.01%, assuming a two week lag between infection and death. This is one-tenth of the flu mortality rate of 0.1%. Such a low death rate would be cause for optimism.” text originally from WSJ. from ⇒ How Deadly Is the China Virus?

Date: March 17, 2020
Source: Scripps Research Institute
Summary: An analysis of public genome sequence data from SARS-CoV-2 and related viruses found no evidence that the virus was made in a laboratory or otherwise engineered. COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic has a natural origin

World O Meters has excellent CoViD-19 pages. World O Meters Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of COVID-19 statistics.

This pre-CoViD-19 study found that medical masks are equally effective for prevention of viral respiratory illnesses. MedLine introduced Antiviral Face Mask that Inactivates 99.99% or Tested Flu Viruses in 2012! Needless to say masks of this type are nowhere to be found.

An N95 mask is effective to ≈0.3 microns. The CoViD-19 virus is about 120nM or about 33% of the size blocked by an N95. Some medical researchers have reported that CoViD-19 pathogens can be expelled as a single entity.

However: Think of it like throwing a handful of sand at a screen door. All the particles of sand will fit through the individual holes in the screen but only a very, very few will pass. In a mask, the holes are a tiny fraction of the total area, whereas door screen is mostly open, so the catch ratio is much higher. A typical multi-layer mask further reduces the hazard.

ANY mask is better than none! All worn masks should be considered as contaminated. Properly dispose or make sterile for reuse.


Snippets on the Bungling Bureaucracy

« While this is a serious public health threat, CDC continues to believe the immediate risk to the U.S. general public is low at this time. »     ⇒ from CDC confirms additional cases of 2019 Novel Coronavirus in United States - 26 Jan 26 2020


« In 2016, IRIS found that EtOs start to pose harm to human health at the infinitesimally low level of 100 parts per quadrillion, or approximately 19,000 times lower than the amount of EtO found in the human body.

That’s right: according to the EPA, humans are exposed to sky-high EtO risks just by being alive and producing EtO internally. This isn’t the first time that IRIS has pedaled junk science. »
    ⇒ from This EPA Regulation Is Literally Making People Sick

« Take the case of Alex Greninger, a doctor and researcher at the University of Washington, who, according to a report in GQ, submitted his application to create a coronavirus test via email. Then he learned that he also needed to submit a paper copy, and then another version burned to a compact disk or loaded onto a drive and delivered to the FDA's Maryland headquarters. »     ⇒ from The Coronavirus Testing Debacle Stems From Decades of Bad FDA Policy

« The infected passengers flew in a cordoned-off section of the airplane, separated from the other passengers by plastic sheeting, according to the State Department news release. Upon landing in the United States, all of the Diamond Princess passengers entered a 14-day quarantine at either Travis Air Force Base in California or Joint Base San Antonio in Texas. Passengers were not informed until after they landed that they had been flying with people infected with COVID-19, according to the Post.

"I think those people should not have been allowed on the plane," Vana Mendizabal, 69, a retired nurse from Florida who was on the flight, told the Post. "They should have been transferred to medical facilities in Japan. We feel we were re-exposed. We were very upset about that." »
    ⇒ from Coronavirus-stricken cruise ship passengers returned to US against CDC advice

«When coronavirus emerged, the company spent 23 days doing a high-throughput screen of their antibody library and produced several new antibodies based on the novel virus. “We were able to quickly iterate what we do in other viruses and apply our tech to SARS-CoV-2,” says Bosch.

E25Bio now has all the components of their test ready for coronavirus diagnosis, but no access to the virus to test it. “The scientific community in Boston had not been cleared by the Department of Public Health in Massachusetts to open a vial of virus within secure facilities,” says Bosch. She has been waiting two months for access to the virus, despite running a laboratory that already works with zika, dengue, and West Nile virus, among others. The company’s manufacturer said they can shift from dengue to coronavirus and produce 100,000 coronavirus tests per day, says Bosch—once the test is ready. The Massachusetts Department of Public Health Bureau of Infectious Disease and Laboratory Sciences did not immediately respond to a request for comment.»
    ⇒ from Wanted: Rapid, Portable Tests for Coronavirus

«When the new coronavirus appeared, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention made its own tests and insisted that people only use those CDC tests. But the CDC test often gave inaccurate results. Some early versions of the test couldn't distinguish between the new coronavirus and water.

Private companies might have offered better tests, and more of them, but that wasn't allowed. The World Health Organization even released information on how to make such tests, but our government still said no. Instead, all tests must go through the government's cumbersome approval process. That takes months. Or years.

Hundreds of labs had the ability to test for the virus, but they weren't allowed to test. »
    ⇒ from Government Red Tape Delays the COVID-19 Response

Data from The COVID Tracking Project, World O Meters and European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
Data is revised, sometimes several weeks later, which accounts for day to day changes. Some data is not reported timely, accounting for some large day to day changes. Hopefully, later corrections will smooth out the data.